The schedule was released Tuesday and all the so called experts are already predicting wins and losses for the upcoming 2009 season. Some are saying 2 wins and others are saying 5, but the fact of the matter is that no one can boldly or with any conviction make predictions because there is still one major thing that has to be determined. Who are the Lions going to draft in next weekend’s draft?
As you know by now, the Lions have the #1 pick in this year’s draft. They’ve gone through the combine and all of their allotted pre-draft workouts. There’s been mock draft after mock draft and finally the time will be here. With this pick, New Coach Jim Schwartz can turn around a franchise that has been the doormat of the NFL, stepped all over and year after year disrespected. A franchise that has not won a championship since trading away their only All-Pro QB in Bobby Layne (the curse of Bobby Layne--it has been 50 years since this supposed curse-1958). A franchise that has only 1 playoff win in 50 years. Or if Coach Schwartz is like any other coach or GM in Lions history he’ll pick the wrong player and be fired after 3 seasons. But no pressure Coach Schwartz, no pressure at all!
The Lions have the entire draft board to pick through but realistically they have a choice between 3 legit players, Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, Baylor OT Jason Smith, and Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. Let’s take a look at the possibility and probability of them selecting each player.
Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry
Curry is viewed by some as the elite prospect of the 2009 draft. Curry is an explosive and hard-hitting athlete, with an inclination for the big play. Curry leaves Wake Forest as a three-time all-conference selection, an All-American and the recipient of the 2008 Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker. Curry broke onto the national stage in 2007, posting 99 tackles, including 13.5 behind the line of scrimmage and 3 interception returns for touchdowns during the season. Despite increased attention from offensive coordinators, Curry was even better in 2008, leading the team with 105 tackles, including 16 tackles for loss. His combine numbers were great, running a 4.56, which was faster than all linebackers and faster than many cornerbacks. (NFLDraftScout.com)
Curry would be a great addition to a bottom third ranked defense, giving up 30-plus points per game. His playmaking ability is what this defense has lacked the last decade. The one problem however, is that the Lions have already traded for OLB Julian Peterson. They play the same position. The Lions have already made this mistake by drafting three wideouts highly in the draft during the Matt Millen era. Long story short, it didn’t work (having only Calvin Johnson remaining) and it hurt the building of the rest of the team. It has been bantered about that if they draft Curry they would move him to MLB, but changing his position after drafting him #1 overall would not be smart. The Lions currently have Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson; yes they need playmakers on defense, but not at the expense of overlooking the rest of the team. So don’t look for them to draft Mr. Curry. Probability: 25%
Baylor OT Jason Smith
Smith is still learning to play on the offensive line after starting his Baylor career at tight end. But after flashing exciting potential as a sophomore and junior, Smith's play ascended to another level in 2008. He started on the right side as a sophomore in 2006 but missed time at left tackle in 2007 with a strained MCL. Smith's play earned him All-American honors in 2008. Smith is a raw prospect at this time compared to some of the other left tackles in this years draft. (NFLDraftScout.com)
Jason Smith is a solid OT. Compared to the others he is definitely a project, and maybe not even the best OT in the draft. But with his huge upside he can be your left tackle for 15 years. The Lions are in desperate need of a dominant LT, since they haven’t had one since Lomas Brown in the early ‘90s. The only way I see him becoming a Lion is if signability became an issue for the franchise. If the team has trouble coming to terms with their #1 choice for the pick then expect him to be a Lion, otherwise, don’t get your hopes up to high. Probability: 60%
Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
Blessed with a stronger and more accurate arm than many current NFL quarterbacks, Stafford possesses the type of upside that has in the past guaranteed a high first-round selection. Stafford earned All-SEC Freshman accolades in going 6-2 as a true freshman starter, earning victories against the likes of then-No. 5 Auburn, No. 14 Georgia Tech and rallying Georgia from a 21-3 deficit in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to earn MVP honors in the victory over No. 16-ranked Virginia Tech. He saw significant statistical improvement as a sophomore (2,523 yards, 19-10 TD-INT) and another bowl game victory. In 2008, Stafford and the Bulldogs were unable to fulfill the expectations of their preseason No. 1 ranking, but his record-breaking junior campaign (3,459 yards, 25 TD-10 INT) and third bowl victory underlined his talent. Scouts, however, have concerns about Stafford trusting his arm with risky throws, but considering his marked improvement in a pro-style offense, durability and production against SEC competition, Stafford ranks among the elite talent in the 2009 draft. (NFLDraftScout.com)
Stafford has an impressive arm. Throwing balls into tough spots and having the ability to be successful in the highly competitive SEC is but a few things on his pros list. On his cons list however, are his chance taking and accuracy issues. With him thinking that he can get the ball in tough spaces, at times can lead to interceptions and him gambling on many throws. If the Lions want a new face for the franchise then they should draft Stafford, but they have to believe that he is just that, a franchise QB. This year’s QB class is not as highly touted as last years or possibly next year’s class. The Lions have to know for sure that he will be their QB for 15 years and not just a 4 year try-out. I do not want them to draft Mr. Stafford based on the fact that he lacks the ideal leadership skills that I would like in a QB. But I do believe that the Lions are going to select him #1 overall. Jim Schwartz, in his introductory press conference, stated that the Lions needed to get their next Bobby Layne. Well Stafford did go to the same high school as Bobby Layne, which is a little scary (remember the 50 year curse—1958, it could be over). Expect Stafford to be wearing a Lions uniform come 4:30pm Saturday afternoon. Probability: 95%